Melbourne Property Market Update September 2019

Inner and Outer North Property Updates

Population movement in the outer suburbs has changed drastically over the past five years. In suburbs such as Craigieburn, the population has increased by 53.4% with the total population increasing from 32,634 people to 50,091. Compare this with suburbs in the inner-city such as Fitzroy, where the population has grown by 11.1%, with the total population increasing from 10,101 to 11,255. This massive growth can be attributed to the continual development and en globo land releases in outer suburbs which is helping accommodate young families looking for a cheaper alternative for housing. Looking to the future, experts are expecting the Craigieburn population to grow by another 36.88% from 2019 to 2041, resulting in a total population of 83,913. This expected growth raises the question of where will everyone live?

The predicted forecasts raise more concern within the city of Yarra, which takes in the inner-city suburbs of Princes Hill, Abbotsford, Clifton Hill and Richmond with the population in the area expected to rise over 57.13% between 2019 and 2041. Accommodation for the expected 57,302 people is also a concern. 

Breaking down the area, the primary resident group in the City of Yarra has recently moved from the modest working-class family (typically with a low household income) to a high-demand lifestyle migrant area attracting young professionals and students. This change is driven by factors such as development growth, migration patterns and housing supply. Whilst the above factors also affect the outer suburbs, estate development has caused greater shockwaves to the city’s outer ring.

Looking at these suburbs, the continual growth will inevitably result in more estate development with the main source of these additional dwellings and households coming from greenfield opportunities in areas such as Epping North, Doreen and Mernda. A significant amount of development is also expected to take place near strategic sites such as University Hill in Bundoora and the Plenty Valley Town Centre in South Morang, with more apartment construction expected to take place. This growth will result in an overall increase in the median house price in areas such as Craigieburn ($536,000) as well as the median rental price per week ($400.00). Not only will this raise development competition in the area, but surrounding suburbs further out such as Kalkallo and Donnybrook will see an increase in population size. 

East and Outer East Property Updates

The number of individuals who choose to migrate within Australia ranks in the top 20% in the world. While it is hard to measure with absolute accuracy as many countries measure internal migration slightly differently, Australia has shown to the rest of the world how mobile its population is. This is a testament to the opportunities and freedoms granted to all who choose to seek a better life for themselves or their families, whether it is for lifestyle, job prospects or a combination of the two. Australia regularly has a changing population and the demographics of certain cities and towns are redistributed as individuals cater for their wants and needs. This is especially prevalent for young adults between the ages of 20-35 (source: www. (2018).

In 2016, the internal migration intensity of women aged 25 years old was recorded at 35%, while men aged 25 years old was recorded at 32%. This translates to one in three men and women aged 25 moving location domestically in 2016. Whilst this statistic would give hope to parents waiting eagerly for their children to leave home, it highlights opportunity and promise for the next generation looking to seek employment by moving out of their homes to fresh locations whether it be the next suburb, the other side of the city or interstate.

In the City of Maroondah which takes in suburbs such as Ringwood, Croydon, Heathmont and Bayswater North, a higher proportion of people did not change the address (59.2%), while a lower (31.1%) moved from elsewhere in Australia and 4.8% moved from overseas. A total of 10,318 people or 32.2% of those who moved within Australia moved within the City of Maroondah.

Maroondah covers the outer east region of Melbourne. Ringwood is located 23 kilometres east of the CBD of Melbourne. The largest portion of migration to the area was international residents. The main driver for international migrants to purchase within this area is affordable property, leafy suburbs, access to a major shopping district (Eastland) and direct freeway access leading back to the city and south to the Mornington Peninsula via the Eastlink toll roads.

The municipalities of Boroondara, Manningham and Maroondah had their largest growth in migration between 2011 and 2016 from overseas with 15,045, 8,428 and 4,903 respectively. This is representative of a desire to live in the east as an established family to have access to good schooling options, transport and live a well-rounded lifestyle. International interest in the area shows how borderless our city is and the accepting culture we represent. This encourages domestic and international interest to live in Melbourne, enhancing the rich multi-culture we have as a city and furthermore, a nation.

Western Suburbs Property Update

Melbourne’s west has been a story of growth in recent years. New greenfield offerings in the cities of Wyndham and Melton stimulated a large population influx, emerging new community centres and population centroids further out of traditional demographic hubs of metropolitan Melbourne.

Affordability is a key factor attracting home buyers to the developing suburbs of Melbourne. With metropolitan Melbourne’s median house price recording $785,000, there are still several suburbs in the west where buyers can get a foot in the door for under $400,000.

New developing areas such as the cities of Brimbank and Wyndham show a large share of emerging cultural communities including those from India, the Philippines, Iraq and Sri-Lanka.

According to census data, Indians show a definite preference for housing projects located in the suburbs of Point Cook, Tarneit, Truganina and Rockbank. The choice of the location is a practical and pragmatic housing decision as the greenfield offerings remain one of the most affordable across Melbourne.

There are specific locations in the developing western suburbs considered desirable for housing, being Ashley Gardens Estate in Hoppers Crossing and Wyndham Waters in Williams Landing. The proximity to transport, easy access to freeways and proximity to shopping, educational and leisure centres attract buyers who look for functional neighborhoods. The high demand has impacted prices, moving prices paid above the median house price for the locality. Major western region infrastructure upgrades, including transport projects and roads upgrade, construction of pedestrian overpasses and paths for cyclists, are underway and due for completion in 2021. The much-anticipated upgrade of the western road network gives local businesses opportunities for growth and access to places of employment.

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